By the Numbers #1:
10 Statistics Every Retirement Investor Should Know
Markets are noisy.
The numbers usually aren’t.
Welcome to the first edition of By the Numbers - a weekly collection of statistics that challenge conventional investing wisdom, highlight important market history, and occasionally reveal what I’ve learned from testing my own retirement strategy.
No predictions. No sensational headlines. Just numbers worth thinking about.
50%
A portfolio that falls 50% needs to gain 100% just to get back to where it started.
Why it matters: Avoiding deep losses can matter more than chasing the highest returns.
Source: Basic investment mathematics.
4%
The famous “4% rule” was based on historical US market data - not a guarantee, and not a rule designed around modern systematic strategies.
Why it matters: Withdrawal rates should depend on your portfolio and flexibility, not one historical study.
Source: William Bengen (1994).
-57%
The S&P 500 lost approximately 57% during the Global Financial Crisis.
Why it matters: Most investors only discover their true risk tolerance during a bear market. This is why you need to learn what the max daily drawdown of your system is; can you tolerate that? Another good exercise (spoiler future post!) is looking at how your system would have coped in the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2009. Have you tested it?
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.
131
My retirement strategy has made 131 monthly decisions over the last 11 years.
Why it matters: Successful investing doesn’t require watching markets every day. You don’t need to be obsessed to do well; just a follow a simple process and apply it for the long term.
Source: My backtests (June 2015–June 2026).
3
My strategy only ever owns three ETFs at any one time.
Why it matters: Simplicity reduces mistakes and makes a portfolio easier to stick with.
Source: The Retirement Portfolio methodology.
67.2%
67.2% of months in my backtest finished with a positive return.
Why it matters: No strategy wins every month, but consistency makes investing psychologically easier.
Source: My backtests.
10 minutes
Around 10 minutes each month is enough to check the signal and rebalance.
Why it matters: The less time you spend reacting to markets, the less likely you are to make emotional decisions.
Source: The Retirement Portfolio methodology.
25
A 25% loss still requires a 33% gain just to break even.
Why it matters: Small reductions in drawdown have a surprisingly large impact on long-term wealth.
Source: Basic investment mathematics.
80%
Research has shown that many professional fund managers fail to beat their benchmark over long periods after fees.
Why it matters: Cost, discipline and process often matter more than stock-picking skill.
Source: S&P SPIVA Scorecards.
20
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has suffered a bear market (a decline of at least 20%) around 20 times.
Why it matters: Bear markets aren’t rare. They’re a normal part of investing, which is why having a plan before they arrive is so important.
Source: Hartford Funds / CFRA.
Final thought
Every week we’re bombarded with headlines, predictions and opinions.
The numbers usually tell a much clearer story.
See you soon for another edition of By the Numbers.