The Retirement Portfolio
Drawdown-first investing for retirees and financially independent investors who want smoother returns, lower stress, and long-term portfolio survival.
Most investment content is written for people trying to get rich. This publication is for people who have already built meaningful capital and now need to protect it, grow it sensibly, and avoid the kind of deep drawdowns that can wreck a retirement plan.
The Retirement Portfolio is a systematic, ETF-based investment strategy built around one simple idea:
In retirement, the biggest risk is not missing the hottest equity curve.
It is being forced out during a deep drawdown.
— The Retirement Portfolio
What I provide
The Retirement Portfolio is a rules-based ETF strategy that:
📈 Has delivered strong returns
Since June 2015, the model has produced approximately 15–16% annualised backtested returns.
📉 Has focused on drawdown control, not just headline CAGR
Maximum daily drawdown has been around 12–13%, compared with approximately 26% for the S&P 500 over the same period.
⚖️ Designed for retirement
The objective is not to maximise returns at any cost, but to pursue attractive long-term growth while keeping drawdowns financially and psychologically manageable.
✅ Is simple to follow
The portfolio is reviewed once per month and can be followed using standard widely available ETFs in a normal brokerage account.
✌️ Typically holds just three ETFs
The model typically holds two growth assets and one defensive asset, with occasional split exposure when the rules call for it.
🛡️ Can rotate into defensive assets
Unlike equity-only momentum systems, the portfolio can move into gold, bonds, gilts, index-linked gilts, or cash-style ETFs when they show stronger relative strength.
📊 Uses monthly price momentum
The strategy relies on rules-based asset rotation, not forecasts, opinions, news headlines, or discretionary market timing.
💎 Uses only liquid ETFs
No leverage, shorting, options, crypto, spread betting, or complex instruments.
📩 Delivers a monthly portfolio signal directly to your inbox
Paid subscribers receive the current allocation, any changes from the previous month, and commentary on what the model is doing.
⏱️ Requires only a few minutes a month to execute
The strategy is designed for investors who want a clear process, not a second job.
These figures above are based on historical backtesting and will change over time. They are not a promise of future returns. However, the model is monitored monthly, as well as extensively analysed annually, to ensure its continued suitability.
Why should I subscribe?
Most investors obsess over returns.
Retired investors need to obsess over something else:
Can I actually live through the drawdowns?
A strategy that looks great on a long-term equity curve can still be very difficult to hold when it falls 25–45% in real time. That matters even more when you are no longer earning a salary, no longer regularly adding fresh capital, and may need to draw from the portfolio.
The Retirement Portfolio is built for investors who care about:
capital preservation
smoother compounding
avoiding major behavioural mistakes
reducing sequence-of-returns risk
staying invested through difficult markets
making portfolio decisions by rules, not emotion
As a free subscriber, you will receive educational articles on portfolio construction, drawdowns, retirement investing, systematic strategies, and the psychology of staying invested.
As a paid subscriber, you will receive access to the live monthly strategy updates, including the current ETF allocation, explanations of the signal, and transparent performance tracking.
It is a systematic, evidence-led approach for investors who believe that avoiding large losses can be just as important as chasing large gains.
What’s the purpose?
Most investors are fighting the wrong battle.
They spend years trying to find the highest-return strategy, but then abandon it when the drawdown becomes too painful.
That is especially dangerous in retirement.
A 30% drawdown is not just a number on a backtest. It can mean anxiety, forced selling, reduced withdrawals, family stress, and a permanent loss of confidence in the plan.
The purpose of The Retirement Portfolio is to help investors avoid that trap.
The strategy is built around a different question:
What is the highest-return portfolio I can reasonably stick with through bad markets?
That means accepting that the strategy may not always beat the most aggressive equity systems in a bull market. It is not designed to win every return race.
It is designed to survive and prosper.
Who is this for?
The Retirement Portfolio may suit you if:
you are retired, semi-retired, or financially independent
you care more about preserving wealth than maximising headline returns
you dislike deep drawdowns
you want a systematic monthly process
you prefer ETFs to individual stock picking
you want rules rather than emotional decisions
you are willing to accept periods of underperformance in exchange for lower stress
It is probably not for you if:
you want the highest possible return at any cost
you are happy sitting through 30–50% drawdowns
you want daily trading action
you want hot stock tips
you want guaranteed outperformance
you believe risk only means volatility, not behaviour
This publication is intentionally not for everyone.
It is for investors who understand that staying invested is often more important than finding the most exciting backtest. If that lightbulb has finally gone off for you, welcome on-board!
Who am I?
I'm an independent private investor with a professional background in econometric modelling and data science. My career has focused on analysing data, testing evidence, and building systematic models rather than relying on opinion or prediction.
My interest is not in market stories, forecasts, or financial entertainment. I care about systems, evidence, risk, drawdowns, and whether an investor can realistically follow a strategy when conditions become uncomfortable.
The Retirement Portfolio is the result of my own search for a calmer way to invest capital after stepping away from full-time work.
I wanted a strategy that could still pursue strong long-term returns, but without exposing my future to the full emotional and financial burden of a pure equity portfolio.
This publication is where I share that process, the live signals, the ongoing research, and the lessons learned along the way.
Important note
The strategy is not left on autopilot. Every year I carry out a comprehensive review, retesting the historical data, evaluating new ETFs, challenging existing assumptions, and ensuring the model remains suitable for today's markets.
However, the usual disclaimers apply:
Nothing published here is personal financial advice.
I am not your financial adviser. I do not know your full personal circumstances, tax position, risk tolerance, or investment objectives.
The Retirement Portfolio is for educational and informational purposes only. You are responsible for your own investment decisions.
Markets can fall. Strategies can underperform. Backtests can disappoint. No system removes risk.
My goal isn’t to promise certainty or eliminate risk. It’s to provide a disciplined, evidence-based investment process that gives retirees the confidence to stay invested through difficult markets.
